Nigeria’s monetary policy committee is expected to leave interest rates at 6 percent on Tuesday but could take further steps to boost credit growth in sub-Saharan Africa’s number two economy, analysts say.
Reviving credit in Africa’s most populous country has been a key objective of the central bank (CBN) since a $4 billion bailout of nine weakly-capitalised banks last August and October shook confidence and led banks to further tighten lending.
Inflation is rising — edging up to 12.3 percent in January — exacerbated by the country’s dependence on imports and periodic fuel shortages which have triggered spikes in transport costs and lifted the price of everything from food to cement.
But the approval of a $2 billion disbursement from the country’s windfall oil savings last month and the sharing of buoyant oil revenues among the three tiers of government have kept liquidity conditions flush.
“Although inflation has accelerated recently … we do not expect any change in the Monetary Policy Rate,” said Razia Khan, head of Africa research at Standard Chartered.
Analysts said they would be looking for an update on progress in forming an Asset Management Company (AMC) to recover bad loans at the rescued banks, key to cleaning up their balance sheets so they can resume lending and to making them attractive for new investors to recapitalise them.
“The key thing to watch for will be what measures the CBN can come up with to silence the critics of the banking reforms,” Standard Chartered’s Khan said.
“With the sector largely stabilised … there will now be more focus on the steps needed to restore credit growth, and come to a more meaningful, long-lasting resolution to the undercapitalization of some banks through the AMC.”
Central Bank Governor Lamido Sanusi said last month that monetary policy would target single-digit inflation, but his priority since taking office last summer has been to prevent a repeat of last year’s banking crisis.
The benchmark interest rate has been on hold at 6 percent since last July.